Formula 1: Musical Chairs

Hamilton's move to Mercedes has kicked off
a game of Formula One musical chairs

Like a delicately played game of chess, where drivers end up driving from one season to the next is a long, drawn out process involving mind games and sleight of hand. Whilst back in June, it seemed completely bonkers that Lewis Hamilton would up-shop and leave behind McLaren (see my article on the start of the silly season here), we now know that is exactly the case.

Numerous factors such as poor reliability, pitstop mishaps, sluggish in-season development, driver parity and new 2014 engine regulations have all added to the decision Hamilton made on moving to Mercedes next year. The move has started and will continue to have a ripple effect up and down the paddock for months to come. We have already seen this beginning to play out; Perez has been announced at McLaren and Schumacher has been displaced at Mercedes. The question is now, how does it impact everyone else? Who will be sitting where when the music stops?

Here then, are my entirely unreliable predictions for the 2013 grid; after all, who knows for certain how it'll play out come next year's Australian Grand Prix.

Red Bull

Confirmed: Sebastian Vettel/Mark Webber

Let's kick off with an easy one. Red Bull were the first team on the grid to announce their 2013 line-up way back in June. Retaining Vettel and Webber is a no-brainer for the Milton Keynes outfit; the duo have won every single one of the team's race victories ever and have delivered back to back Drivers' and Constructors' Championships. They fit well into defined No. 1 and No.2 roles (no matter how much Webber complains) and will remain that way for the foreseeable future. With Buemi and Alguesuari given the boot and Ricciardo and Vergne not ready to step up, Webber was always the best bet for a harmonious future at Red Bull.

McLaren

Confirmed: Jenson Button/Sergio Perez

Given the shock loss of their star driver, stealing Sergio Perez from the clutches of Sauber and Ferrari is a massive coup for McLaren. Losing Hamilton will sting and also hamper the team's morale. Knowing that another star driver has flown the nest (Hamilton follows in Alonso, Raikkonen, Montoya, Prost and Senna by leaving Macca), will dampen the spirits of everyone back at Woking. 

This is why they have opted for the future potential of rising star Sergio Perez. Perez has been impressive this season, with three podiums in Malaysia, Canada and Italy. He will no doubt relish the opportunity of racing for a top flight team. Jenson meanwhile will be pleased that he has no longer has 'the fastest driver in F1' to worry about as a team-mate. McLaren's prospects in 2013 look fair to say the least; give them a car that is competitive and Sergio and Jenson will deliver. 

Ferrari

Confirmed: Fernando Alonso

Probable: Felipe Massa
Possible: Nico Hulkenberg/Paul di Resta/Heikki Kovalainen

With Perez headed to McLaren, the pressure on Felipe Massa is lifted somewhat. The only drivers considered by Ferrari now are Force India duo Hulkenberg and di Resta as well as Kovalainen. All of them are quick, consistent and reliable, with no threat of challenging Fernando for No. 1 status (in theory at least). My money is on Ferrari retaining Massa for one more year.

Lotus

Confirmed: N/A

Probable: Kimi Raikkonen/ Romain Grosjean

Possible: Jerome D'Ambrosio/Davide Valsecchi

With no reason to axe either driver, the main factor at play here is if Kimi wants to return in 2013. His comeback has been successful but has yet to warrant victory. Should Kimi stay on, Lotus would no doubt sign him up alongside Grosjean who, various misdemeanour's aside, has proved quick on occasion. 

Should Kimi grow tired of not winning, possible replacements include third driver D'Ambrosio and GP2 Champ Valsecchi. My prediction is one more year with Kimi and Romain. 

Mercedes

Confirmed: Lewis Hamilton/Nico Rosberg

In Hamilton and Rosberg, Mercedes have a line-up that should work well. Quick, youthful, hungry, both drivers will push the other forward in 2013. Losing Schumacher won't hamper them either; he was always more of a financial ploy anyway. 

Hamilton aims to build a team around him, much like Michael did with Ferrari in the late 90's. Only time will tell whether his move was a stroke of genius or stupidity. 

Williams

Confirmed: N/A

Probable: Pastor Maldonado/Valterri Bottas

Possible: Bruno Senna/Adrian Sutil/Jaime Alguesuari

The most likely line-up here is Maldonado to stay on alongside the increasingly impressive Bottas. Senna has been mediocre and will most likely make way for Valterri. Either that, or a complete shock in hiring F1 refugees Sutil or Alguesuari.

Force India

Confirmed: N/A

Probable: Paul di Resta/Nico Hulkenberg

Possible: Jules Bianchi

Force India's line-up relies upon Ferrari's decision on Massa. Should Massa get the boot, both Paul and Nico are in prime position to get a phone call from Maranello, with Jules Bianchi stepping in to replace the departed. If Ferrari retain Massa, my prediction is for di Resta and Hulkenberg to stay on. 

Sauber

Confirmed: N/A

Probable: Kamui Kobayashi/Esteban Guiterrez

Possible: Michael Schumacher/Felipe Massa

After the departure of Perez, Sauber have drivers lining up to fill the vacancy. It is likely that Sauber will retain Kamui Kobayashi for stabilities sake. He has been overshadowed by Perez so far this year but is a increasingly safe pair of hands. Should financial issues loom for Sauber however, Kamui could get the boot given his lack of personal sponsorship.

Esteban Guiterrez has been Sauber's third driver for nearly two years now and looks likely as a Perez replacement. This however, relies upon Schumacher. Should Michael choose to stay on, Sauber have already announced their interest in signing him on for 2013. This, in my mind, seems unlikely given how poorly Michael's comeback has gone so far. Likewise, a possible destination for Massa, should he get the boot from Ferrari is his old team of Sauber.

My money is on a Kobayashi/Guiterrez partnership in 2013 with Schumacher to retire.

Toro Rosso

Confirmed: N/A

Probable: Daniel Ricciardo/Jean-Eric Vergne

With no body else to really fill the void, I predict that Toro Rosso will retain their current line-up for next season, rewarding them with more experience and a shot at replacing a retiring Webber or a departing Vettel (given rumours surrounding a move to Ferrari are true) in 2014.  

Caterham

Confirmed: N/A

Probable: Heikki Kovalainen

Possible: Vitaly Petrov/Bruno Senna/Felipe Massa/Adrian Sutil/Jaime Alguesuari/Davide Valsecchi

Much like Force India, Caterham's line-up hinges on Ferrari. If Kovalainen is asked to partner Alonso next year, a straight swap with Massa could be on the cards. If Massa stays on/Ferrari opt for a Force Indian driver, my money is on Kovalainen to stay on at Caterham.

Who he will be teamed up with is another matter. Petrov has been mediocre and is struggling for sponsorship. Should he get the boot, there are a plethora of names viable to fill the void such as Senna, Sutil, Alguesuari or Valsecchi.

My prediction is for Kovalainen to be kept on with either Petrov or Senna as his team-mate.

Marussia

Confirmed: N/A

Probable: Timo Glock/Max Chilton

Possible: Charles Pic/Vitaly Petrov

In keeping with tradition, I predict Max Chilton to take over from Charles Pic in 2013, assuming Marussia keep Timo Glock as lead driver. Either that, or Marussia opt to wrench Russian driver Petrov from Caterham, making for Russia's first driver/team combo. 

HRT

Confirmed: N/A

Possible: Pedro de la Rosa/Narain Karthikeyan/Dani Clos/Vitantonio Liuzzi
Predicting who will be lining-up for HRT next year is tricky; de la Rosa is like Schumacher; his career is in its twilight phase so I doubt we will be seeing him next year. Karthikeyan's role also surprises me, the Indian never having shown much potential throughout his career.

Regardless of this, I predict that HRT will retain it's current line-up in 2013 or utilise Liuzzi and rookie (and Spaniard) Dani Clos, two of their three third drivers.